Local meteorologist’s love of weather started as a child

While the Internet may have people believing anyone with a computer can predict the weather, the former Director of the The Midwestern Regional Climate Center says that isn’t true.

“As a minimum, meteorologists have a bachelor’s degree,” said Steve Hilberg. “For many forecasting positions these days, a Master’s Degree is needed as well.  Course work includes specific meteorology courses, math, and physics.”

Hilberg, who retired as MRCC Director October 2011 after serving more than 13 years in that position, said the non-trained “mediatrologists” or those who act like meteorologists on social media typically post model output maps they like and post them online, many times as click bait.

“The trained professionals are looking at the entire forecast picture,” he said. “The atmosphere is incredibly complex and it takes someone who has the education and training to use the tools we have available and apply them correctly.”

Hilberg said social media has helped shape people’s perceptions of meteorologists and forecasts due to the misinformation that is published.

“Most people don’t appreciate the fact that even subtle changes in the atmosphere can have a big impact on the forecast,” he said.

Hilberg, who currently works part-time on climate services and applied climate projects for the MRCC, said he has always been fascinated by the weather.

He began his 36-year career with the Illinois State Water Survey as a student worker and in 1998 he was named an assistant Illinois State Climatologist for two years. Before that, he was responsible for extension services at the Water Survey.

“Pretty much everything fascinates me about the weather,” Hilberg said. “I’ve been into weather since I was 10 and knew shortly after that this is what I wanted to do when I grew up. My particular interest is winter storms, but I sure won’t pass up a good thunderstorm.”

Hilberg said the way weather is predicted has changed over the years.

Now the number of tools meteorologists have available to use is numerous. Hilberg said that when he was in school there were only two models that projected weather out to 36 hours.

“We plotted and analyzed maps by hand,” he said. “Now, we have a number of forecast models that range from the global to regional, and all of them have their strengths and weaknesses.”

Hilberg said the global models project weather out to 16 days, while regional models project out four to five days.

Satellite and radar data provides an instantaneous picture of what is going on in the atmosphere, along with the tens of thousands of surface weather observations, Hilberg said.

Hilberg said that it is important to remember that the models are just tools and it takes a trained person to interpret the models and know how they apply to the particular weather situation they are forecasting.

Hilberg said meteorologists can generally predict the weather conditions about seven days ahead of time.

“That human element is critical,” he said. “That’s one reason you really can’t trust the forecast apps, for example, on a smart phone. The apps just take the model output and interpret that for your location. If the models are way off, then the forecast you see will be wrong.”